Bitcoin’s recent upward movement, following a low of $60,000 on February 6, is hinting at a potential structural improvement in the market. However, some analysts caution that this rally may still be a bear market phenomenon rather than an outright recovery. According to CryptoQuant analyst Maartun, while long-term holders are increasingly accumulating Bitcoin and strategic capital is beginning to flow into the market, ongoing selling pressure from short-term holders and whales is limiting any significant price appreciation.
In a video released on April 20, Maartun emphasized that the current market dynamics should be viewed through the lens of market character rather than just price trends. As Bitcoin hovers around $75,000—approximately 24% above its recent bear market low—he questions whether this movement signifies the beginning of a sustained upward trend or merely a temporary rally that will be followed by further selling pressure. He argues that misinterpreting the current phase can lead to significant misallocation of capital.
Supporting his analysis, Maartun pointed to on-chain data indicating a positive shift in holder behavior. Over the past month, long-term holders have accumulated around 354,000 BTC, a trend he describes as “structural accumulation.” This indicates that coins are being absorbed by investors who are less influenced by short-term market fluctuations. Such accumulation typically signals a strengthening of the market base.
Despite this encouraging backdrop, Maartun notes that the price surge has largely stemmed from tactical buying and speculative trading. He highlighted a substantial capital infusion by Strategy, which reportedly raised about $2.66 billion in just 48 hours across two separate days in mid-April. However, he points out that this influx has not resulted in the expected robust market response, suggesting that existing supply is currently meeting this increased demand, creating pressure on the price.
Maartun identified two primary groups contributing to selling pressure. First, short-term holders have moved approximately 60,000 BTC to exchanges. Notably, they are doing so while the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) remains below 1, indicating these holders are selling at a loss. “They bought higher and now they’re exiting into strength,” Maartun stated, characterizing this behavior as typical of a bear market environment.
He framed this activity not strictly as bearish but as part of a broader repositioning of market participants, where weaker holders are selling into bids from stronger, more committed buyers. Nonetheless, he indicated this behavior aligns more closely with bear market rallies than with sustained bullish trends.
The second source of selling pressure comes from whales—wallets holding over 100 BTC—which have been increasing their inflows to exchanges, suggesting a distribution phase at current price levels. This phenomenon complicates the market landscape, indicating that while long-term structural foundations may be improving, there remains active selling pressure in the short term.
Market action reflects this tension, as Bitcoin continues to trade below the short-term holder realized price, estimated at around $83,000. Maartun considers this level a crucial pivot, noting that prices often remain above it in bull markets and serve as resistance in weaker market phases. Currently, Bitcoin sits below this critical threshold, and the market has yet to confirm a clean breakout above significant resistance levels.
In summary, Maartun describes the current situation as a “fairly balanced but not yet bullish picture.” While there are positive indicators such as long-term accumulation and strategic demand, the ongoing selling by short-term holders and whales, coupled with failure to reclaim the short-term holder realized price, suggests caution. The market remains in a conditional state—should demand continue to absorb supply and drive Bitcoin above the critical levels, then the market’s improving backdrop could facilitate a more durable upward trend. Until then, he maintains a more cautious stance on the rally’s sustainability. At last check, Bitcoin was trading at $75,088.
