Bitcoin experienced a significant rally on Wednesday, reaching nearly $82,500 for the first time since January. However, it has since experienced a slight decline, trading below $80,000 in the latest updates. Over the past month, the premier cryptocurrency has surged more than 17%, but analysts from CryptoQuant have referred to this upswing as part of a “bear market rally.” They caution that as profit levels escalate, Bitcoin could soon face increased selling pressure.
On May 4, Bitcoin holders realized profits totaling 14.6K BTC, marking the highest daily profit since December 10. The asset’s impressive 37% rally from its lows in April moved many holders back into profitable territory for the first time in months. CryptoQuant noted that this profit-taking surge constitutes the “first significant profit realization event since December 2025,” with short-term holders beginning to lock in gains since mid-April.
Analysts added that historically, spikes in realized profits at critical resistance levels often precede local price tops or extended consolidation periods. According to their data, the 30-day net realized profit for Bitcoin traders has surged into positive territory, suggesting that a greater number of holders are experiencing gains rather than losses. This change has been termed a “structural inflection point” in market dynamics.
Notably, while currently at a net profit of 20,000 BTC, this figure remains significantly below levels typically associated with transitions to bull markets, which usually see profit-taking figures closer to 130,000-200,000 BTC. This distinction reinforces the notion of a sustained bear market rally rather than a substantive shift in market structure.
Amid the rising unrealized profits, CryptoQuant has cautioned that this could signal a heightened risk of correction, urging traders to consider locking in their gains. Despite these warnings, the firm indicated that a correction may not unfold immediately, citing consistent demand for perpetual futures, limited inflows to exchanges, and a milder decrease in spot demand. Such conditions historically lead to continued near-term price strength during bear market rallies.
As of now, Bitcoin is changing hands around $80,150 after dipping to $79,692 on Thursday morning. This current price places Bitcoin more than 36% below its all-time high of $126,080, achieved last October.
Other major cryptocurrencies, including Ethereum and XRP, have also faced declines, with both dropping over 2% to trade around $2,301 and $1.39, respectively. CoinGlass reported that over $269 million in crypto long positions, which speculate on increasing asset prices, have been liquidated in the past 24 hours.
On Myriad, a prediction market platform linked to Decrypt’s parent company, a strong wave of optimism persists among users. They assign 83% odds that Bitcoin will rise to $84,000 before it potentially declines to $55,000.
