In an exciting development for cryptocurrency traders and investors, decentralized betting platform Polymarket has introduced contracts linked to Volmex’s volatility indices for Bitcoin and Ethereum. This move allows market participants to wager on potential price fluctuations for these leading cryptocurrencies throughout the year.
The new contracts, titled “What will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit in 2026?” and “What will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit in 2026?”, became available on Monday at 4:13 PM ET. These contracts operate on a straightforward mechanism: they pay out “Yes” if the 30-day implied volatility of Bitcoin or Ethereum reaches or exceeds a designated target during any one-minute interval by December 31 at 23:59. Conversely, a “No” settlement occurs if the target is not met.
Polymarket’s format introduces a unique opportunity for traders, enabling them to engage with volatility—a market element traditionally dominated by institutional players employing complex strategies. The platform simplifies this process, allowing participants to express their predictions in an intuitive manner. A one-minute “candle” on a price chart illustrates the asset’s trading dynamics over a brief period, reflecting its open, high, low, and close prices, akin to the structure of a candle.
By purchasing “Yes” shares, investors are essentially indicating a bullish outlook on market volatility, anticipating increased turbulence. On the other hand, “No” shares suggest a belief in stability, highlighting the nature of the bets as based on the extent of price swings rather than the direction of price movement.
The introduction of these contracts is a significant milestone for both Volmex and the broader crypto derivatives landscape. Cole Kennelly, founder and CEO of Volmex Labs, emphasized in a communication with CoinDesk the importance of this collaboration. He noted that it brings institutional-quality Bitcoin and Ethereum volatility benchmarks into a more accessible prediction market framework.
Initial trading activity indicates that there is a 35% likelihood that Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index (BVIV) will double to 80% from its current 40% this year. Meanwhile, the ethereal counterpart is showing similar expectations, with participants pricing in a potential rise to 90%, up from 50%.
It’s also noteworthy that the relationship between Bitcoin’s implied volatility and its spot price has shifted significantly since the introduction of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. two years ago. The correlation has become largely negative, suggesting that increases in volatility may now be more closely linked with declines in spot prices rather than price rallies.
This new offering from Polymarket not only democratizes access to volatility trading but also embodies an evolution in how both retail and institutional investors can interact with and capitalize on the cryptocurrency market’s inherent unpredictability.
